At present, the pressure on supply and demand has eased, and the cost support for stainless steel welded pipes is not yet stable

The pre holiday effect has shown some signs, with short positions taking profits and closing positions in futures, and prices rebounding after stopping the decline. The resilience of the spot market for stainless steel welded pipes has strengthened, but transactions have not significantly improved. Due to the decline in prices both upstream and downstream, stainless steel welded pipe factories have suffered partial losses, while steel trade has generally suffered losses. Especially for some variety agreement households, stainless steel welded pipe factories settle at high levels, resulting in increased losses per ton of steel; There are also steel trading companies that pick up goods at high levels and replenish them during the decline process, causing the snowball to become bigger and bigger, ultimately making it difficult to support, and the bank’s credit limit is almost exhausted.

Can the price of stainless steel welded pipes stop falling? At present, the market is more concerned about whether the downward trend can end with the May Day holiday. This needs to be considered from both macro and industrial perspectives. There are certain variables in both macro and negative factors, which have become an important condition for changing the current steel price. From an external perspective, May has arrived at the time window for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again. Is it still expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points according to the original market expectations? Even if interest rates are raised, they will enter the final period of interest rate hikes, but concerns about hidden financial risks and recession are also increasing. Internally, facing the most important economic meeting after the two high-level meetings before the holiday, how to set the tone is crucial for the macro direction in the coming months, which is also important for the market. From an industrial perspective, there is still a significant contradiction between supply and demand. The reduction in production is mainly reflected in the independent operation of steel enterprises, and no official policies have been introduced yet. Moreover, the production reduction in the long process is incomplete, and the proportion of production reduction in major steel producing provinces is not high. The reduction in production is not synchronous, and the reduction in production in the western stainless steel welded pipe factory is greater than that in the eastern steel factory. Hebei steel factory still has a certain profit based on the immediate cost of the plate, and the actual effect of the reduction still needs time to be further transformed.

Anyway, as the holiday approaches, the momentum of spot prices following the decline weakens, and the bearish sentiment in the stainless steel welded pipe market also weakens. The continuous sharp decline in the market has been able to converge. The stainless steel welded pipe market requires a gradual conversion of long and short conditions, and this conversion agent requires further observation of changes in macro and micro conditions.

Price prediction of stainless steel welded pipes

From the current operating situation of the stainless steel welded pipe market, the decline has slowed down, and local stainless steel welded pipe prices have begun to stabilize. Some markets have followed the market’s slight rebound, and the downward process is no longer smooth. As steel mills reduce production and further expand, the support for finished products has become apparent. At present, the pressure on the supply and demand level has eased, and the changes in supply and demand can be seen, as long as we see which side of the change is bigger and which side is smaller. But in terms of raw materials, the pressure has not yet eased, and the cost support for stainless steel welded pipes is still unstable. On the one hand, reducing production has negative feedback on raw materials; On the other hand, there are still expectations for a reduction in coke profits. From a pre holiday perspective, the spot fluctuations of stainless steel welded pipes are the main trend, with insufficient downward momentum. Some markets may follow the market fluctuations or even rebound slightly.