304L stainless steel seamless pipe market mentality tends to be bearish, futures fluctuate and decline

Stimulated by news from various parties, the market price of 304L stainless steel seamless pipe showed a trend of high before and low after March. The steel plant adjusted the monthly production schedule based on the profits of various varieties, and the pipe billet basically completed the production schedule in March, but the actual output of hot rolled pipe billet was not ideal. This article takes 9 steel mills in the north and 4 steel mills in the south as samples, analyzes the reasons why the actual production of pipe billets in March did not meet the planned production at the beginning of the month from three aspects: pipe billet prices, total contract volume held by steel mills, and downstream demand, and predicts the production of pipe billets at 304L stainless steel seamless pipe mills in April.

1. The overall price rose first and then fell. 304L stainless steel seamless pipe factory’s profits continued to shrink

In the first half of March, under the favorable policies of the National People’s Congress and the expectation of the peak demand season for the “Golden Third”, the outlook showed a fluctuating upward trend. However, the prices of raw materials such as coal coke and ore remained high, and the profitability of steel mills was not optimistic. The demand fulfillment in the second half of the month did not meet expectations, and Silicon Valley Bank, the second largest bank in the United States, experienced a thunderstorm. At the same time, the Federal Reserve maintained a pace of interest rate hikes, and the 304L stainless steel seamless pipe market mentality was relatively empty. Futures fluctuated and fell. Although Premier Li Qiang stated that he would introduce new policies to promote stable and positive economic development, the actual demand has not kept up with the pace, and the price of pipe blanks has risen weakly. The price of raw materials has also shifted narrow, making it easy for pipe blank prices to fall but difficult to rise, As a result, the profit of the steel plant’s tube billet varieties is poor, and its production capacity is intentionally transferred to other varieties.

2. Although orders are increasing weekly, the growth rate has slowed down compared to last month

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the pace of steel mills receiving orders from 9 sample steel mills in the north was relatively fast. However, by mid to late March, the number of orders received significantly decreased. At the same time, the delivery speed of steel mills accelerated, and the number of contracts held by sample steel mills continued to decrease, indirectly indicating that the price of steel mills receiving orders was gradually decreasing. However, steel mills have reported that the orders for continuous casting tube billets in March were basically saturated, but the orders for hot rolled tube billets were not good. Some steel mills did not have sufficient orders in March, and on the one hand, they had short-term maintenance operations in March; On the other hand, steel mills convert it to other products to ensure production and profitability. The production of tube billets from the four sample steel mills in the south is not high, so almost all of them have completed their monthly plans.

3. Downstream operating rates are normally high, but there is still a strong demand for pipe blanks

The 304L stainless steel seamless pipe factory, as the main force in demand for pipe billets, purchased more continuous casting pipe billets in March than hot rolling pipe billets, indirectly indicating a low willingness of short process hot rolling pipe factories to replenish inventory. I believe there are two main reasons: firstly, the price is high, and the pipe factory is bearish, playing a game with the steel factory and cautiously replenishing inventory; The second reason is that the utilization rate of operating capacity is not high, resulting in a decrease in the demand for pipe blanks. As of March 31, the inventory of seamless tube billets in 21 sample seamless tube factories in Shandong reached 401700 tons, which is at a normal high level. However, the operating rate remains at a moderate high level of 65.6%, so there is still a strong demand for tube billets.

In summary, there are signs of contraction in both the profit space and downstream demand for 304L stainless steel seamless pipe factory tube billets. It is expected that the total planned production of tube billets from 13 sample enterprises in April will be around 950000 tons.