In the short term, pay attention to the pressure rhythm near the front height of sanitary seamless pipe and the policy risk of iron ore

Sanitary seamless pipe spot transaction

Today, the market price of sanitary seamless pipe is stable and moderate. The mentality of merchants is mainly cautious and wait-and-see. The two sessions are approaching, and the macro expectations are still supported. Although the market has been reduced recently, the medium-term direction is still too much. At present, the demand for sanitary seamless pipe is still the core factor of price rise and fall, and needs to continue to pay attention to the recovery of demand.

Inventory rose, and there was a small accumulation of stocks in various regions

In the case of poor profits in the steel plant, it still maintains the production based on sales and low warehouse circulation mode. In this case, it is difficult to recover the production of sanitary seamless pipes. The demand for raw materials is basically replenished according to demand, while the demand continues to improve. However, the overall situation is still lower than expected. The decline of double warehouses is basically based on the delivery of goods. Coal accidents may lead to safety inspections to inhibit the production, but the supply of coal coke is looser than that of iron ore, Therefore, the actual impact is still limited and emotional. In the short term, we still pay attention to the pressure rhythm near the front height of sanitary seamless pipe and the policy risk of iron ore.

raw material

Crude oil system: Although the prospect of Russia’s export reduction has supported the oil price, the increase of US inventories and concerns about global economic activities have put pressure on the oil price. However, OPEC has the expectation of reducing production to defend the oil price in the future. Currently, the support range of US crude oil is still the main observation point, and the bottom support of domestic crude oil system is explored step by step.

Black series: The environmental protection policy of heavy pollution weather has been launched in many places in Hebei, and many steel mills have received the notice of stopping and limiting production, and the increase of coke enterprises has gradually fallen to ground. Under the background of further erosion of steel mills’ profits, the output is expected to further narrow, and the sanitary seamless pipe market may face certain speculation. In the short term, it is still necessary to pay attention to the terminal demand. In the future, there is a situation of further improvement of demand expectations. At present, pay attention to the risk of shock, and in the future, pay attention to the disk support.

Coal and coke: with the improvement of the market sentiment of sanitary seamless pipes, the coke enterprises’ shipments are relatively smooth, and the inventory has decreased significantly. On the whole, the inventory pressure is low. The coking coal price at the raw material end rose, and the coke cost support strengthened. Downstream steel plants are operating at a high and stable rate, which has some support for the demand for coke. It is expected that the coke market will operate at a moderate and strong level in the short term.

Latest news of sanitary seamless pipe

1. Tangshan environmental protection limited production: Tangshan has launched a Class II emergency response to heavy pollution weather since 18:00 on February 25, 2023. The specific lifting time will be notified separately. After the current round of production restriction in Tangshan, many steel mills said that they planned to limit the production of sintering by 30-50%.

Impact: Although the short-term impact on blast furnace production is small, the duration is uncertain. If it lasts for a long time, it may limit the production of molten iron and the supply of sanitary seamless pipes. There is support for sanitary seamless pipe.

2. Release of 17 articles on financial support for housing leasing: On February 24, the People’s Bank of China and the CBRC jointly issued the Opinions on Financial Support for the Development of Housing Leasing Market (Draft for Comments). There are 17 articles in the Opinions, which mainly support the development of the housing leasing market by strengthening the innovation of housing leasing credit products and service models, broadening the diversified investment and financing channels of the housing leasing market, and strengthening and improving the financial risk management of housing leasing.

Impact: The draft is mainly beneficial to the rental housing market and helps to improve the structure of the real estate market, with both rental and purchase. For sanitary seamless pipes mainly used for construction and new construction, the impact is relatively small. However, the improvement and improvement of the overall real estate market may boost the sanitary seamless pipe in the medium and long term.

Futures weaken in shock, and today’s rise is short-lived

The strong opening of sanitary seamless pipes in the early trading showed strong motivation and willingness to go long. However, we need to see that the pressure on the high level of inventory on a year-on-year basis is high, and the probability of market fluctuation is high. It is not recommended to follow up in operation, so it is advisable to call back the low level.

Expected price trend of sanitary seamless pipe in March

First of all, the inventory of sanitary seamless pipes is generally in a state of slow de-stocking. In the case of low profits, the steel plant lacks the power to increase production. Even if the consumption intensity of the market is lower, it will slowly enter the state of market specification shortage. At that time, the market speculation will start a new round of shock and rise, and the range will be ignored, but the market confidence of sanitary seamless pipe will be boosted.

Next is the expectation of the sanitary seamless pipe market. “Gold, Silver and Four” are all familiar to everyone. Although last year’s Gold Nine and Silver Ten failed to get the necessary verification, the Gold Three and Silver Four were never absent, but the most important thing to pay attention to was the coordination of March futures, the fluctuation of international crude oil, the convening of the two sessions, and the support of financial market sentiment may cause the rise of the market, and it is expected to enter the adjustment state in the middle and late of the session.