In the near future, the downstream demand continues to recover, and the enthusiasm of stainless steel seamless pipe plant is still strong

Driven by the market demand for seamless stainless steel tubes, the price of iron ore has been rising since the end of 2022. However, in the morning of March 6, the main contract of iron ore futures led the market down.

On the news, according to the news released by the National Development and Reform Commission on March 3, the price monitoring center of the National Development and Reform Commission recently organized a meeting of some market institutions and industry experts, It was pointed out that “individual international institutions ignored the general background of the sluggish world economic recovery and the general easing of iron ore supply, and wantonly advocated that iron ore supply was facing a shortage and the price would rise significantly, pushing up the expectation of price rise, which seriously deviated from the reality of the overall stable operation of the market”. This is the third time this year that the National Development and Reform Commission has released information on the fluctuations of iron ore spot prices.

The high price of raw materials for the production of stainless steel seamless pipes such as iron ore has impacted the profit level of steel mills to some extent. This year, it is expected that the global iron ore supply will be relatively surplus, and there is still room for downward adjustment of prices.

Baichuan Yingfu data also showed that on March 6, the import ore market was stronger. The current iron ore price has strengthened significantly in the early stage, which is related to the expected increase in demand of downstream stainless steel seamless pipe enterprises.

At present, the national social inventory of stainless steel seamless tubes has declined for two consecutive weeks. However, the volume of Australian iron ore shipments to China recovered last week, the off-season of seasonal shipments was nearing the end, and this year’s shipments were significantly higher than that of the same period last year, while the shipment of Brazilian iron ore also recovered to some extent, and the inbound and outbound volume of iron ore was significantly reduced. Although the current port inventory continues to rise, the accumulated speed slowed down, and the later period will enter the inventory reduction cycle.

On the demand side, the downstream demand has continued to recover in the near future, the stainless steel seamless pipe plant is still active in production, and the operating rate of blast furnaces of major steel enterprises in the country continues to rise slightly.

At present, the ore inventory of the steel plant remains stable, and the purchasing activity is moderate. The purchase is mainly on demand. A small number of stainless steel seamless pipe plants bid for bulk ore, and the overall inquiry is relatively small. Overall, the price index of imported iron ore is expected to consolidate at a high level next week.

Recently, the profit of stainless steel seamless pipe plant has rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has further increased. At present, the supply side partially supports the price, and the more important thing is to see the demand fulfillment. At the same time, iron ore prices are also under the pressure of policy control. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of policy information on iron ore prices at all times. It is expected that the short-term iron ore market will be mainly operated in a volatile manner, the profit loss of the stainless steel seamless pipe plant will be repaired, and the enthusiasm for the resumption of blast furnace production will be slightly improved, but the iron ore procurement will still be based on replenishment as required.