304تميل عقلية سوق الأنابيب غير الملحومة المصنوعة من الفولاذ المقاوم للصدأ إلى أن تكون هبوطية, تتقلب العقود الآجلة وتنخفض

Stimulated by news from various parties, the market price of 304L stainless steel seamless pipe showed a trend of high before and low after March. The steel plant adjusted the monthly production schedule based on the profits of various varieties, and the pipe billet basically completed the production schedule in March, but the actual output of hot rolled pipe billet was not ideal. This article takes 9 steel mills in the north and 4 steel mills in the south as samples, analyzes the reasons why the actual production of pipe billets in March did not meet the planned production at the beginning of the month from three aspects: pipe billet prices, total contract volume held by steel mills, and downstream demand, and predicts the production of pipe billets at 304L stainless steel seamless pipe mills in April.

1. The overall price rose first and then fell. 304ل stainless steel seamless pipe factory’s profits continued to shrink

In the first half of March, under the favorable policies of the National People’s Congress and the expectation of the peak demand season for the “Golden Third”, the outlook showed a fluctuating upward trend. However, the prices of raw materials such as coal coke and ore remained high, and the profitability of steel mills was not optimistic. The demand fulfillment in the second half of the month did not meet expectations, and Silicon Valley Bank, the second largest bank in the United States, experienced a thunderstorm. At the same time, حافظ الاحتياطي الفيدرالي على وتيرة رفع أسعار الفائدة, و ال 304L stainless steel seamless pipe كانت عقلية السوق فارغة نسبيًا. تقلبت العقود الآجلة وانخفضت. على الرغم من أن رئيس مجلس الدولة لي تشيانغ ذكر أنه سيقدم سياسات جديدة لتعزيز التنمية الاقتصادية المستقرة والإيجابية, الطلب الفعلي لم يواكب الوتيرة, وارتفع سعر قطع الأنابيب بشكل ضعيف. كما تحول سعر المواد الخام إلى ضيق, مما يجعل من السهل هبوط أسعار الأنابيب الفارغة ولكن من الصعب ارتفاعها, نتيجة ل, the profit of the steel plant’s tube billet varieties is poor, and its production capacity is intentionally transferred to other varieties.

2. Although orders are increasing weekly, the growth rate has slowed down compared to last month

At the end of February and the beginning of March, the pace of steel mills receiving orders from 9 sample steel mills in the north was relatively fast. However, by mid to late March, the number of orders received significantly decreased. At the same time, the delivery speed of steel mills accelerated, and the number of contracts held by sample steel mills continued to decrease, indirectly indicating that the price of steel mills receiving orders was gradually decreasing. However, steel mills have reported that the orders for continuous casting tube billets in March were basically saturated, but the orders for hot rolled tube billets were not good. Some steel mills did not have sufficient orders in March, and on the one hand, they had short-term maintenance operations in March; On the other hand, تقوم مصانع الصلب بتحويلها إلى منتجات أخرى لضمان الإنتاج والربحية. إن إنتاج كتل الأنابيب من مصانع الصلب الأربعة في الجنوب ليس عالياً, لذلك أكمل جميعهم تقريبًا خططهم الشهرية.

3. معدلات التشغيل المصب مرتفعة عادة, ولكن لا يزال هناك طلب قوي على فراغات الأنابيب

The 304L stainless steel seamless pipe مصنع, كقوة رئيسية في الطلب على قضبان الأنابيب, اشترت قضبان أنابيب الصب المستمر في مارس أكثر من قضبان أنابيب الدرفلة على الساخن, indirectly indicating a low willingness of short process hot rolling pipe factories to replenish inventory. I believe there are two main reasons: firstly, the price is high, and the pipe factory is bearish, playing a game with the steel factory and cautiously replenishing inventory; The second reason is that the utilization rate of operating capacity is not high, resulting in a decrease in the demand for pipe blanks. As of March 31, the inventory of seamless tube billets in 21 sample seamless tube factories in Shandong reached 401700 tons, وهو مستوى مرتفع عادي. However, يظل معدل التشغيل عند مستوى مرتفع معتدل 65.6%, لذلك لا يزال هناك طلب قوي على قضبان الأنابيب.

في ملخص, هناك علامات على الانكماش في كل من مساحة الربح والطلب النهائي 304L stainless steel seamless pipe قضبان أنبوب المصنع. من المتوقع أن إجمالي الإنتاج المخطط له لقضبان الأنابيب من 13 عينة من الشركات في أبريل ستكون حولها 950000 tons.